FreshRSS

Zobrazení pro čtení

Jsou dostupné nové články, klikněte pro obnovení stránky.

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Final Fantasy XIV is on its fifth expansion, and with that comes two new jobs for our Warriors of Light to master. Dawntrail's release means that Pictomancer and Viper – both damage dealers (or DPS) – are newly available to play. But they're far from the only options.

Final Fantasy XIV is now officially up to 21 main jobs, as well as one limited job with a second on the way. A continual evolution of specified playstyles means that with every new level cap, each job gets tweaked a little, making it the perfect opportunity to dive into something new.

SUPERJUMP has a handy guide for anyone not certain what job to level next, homing in on what each excels at, the drawbacks, and its playstyle.


2.0 A Realm Reborn

Final Fantasy XIV's base game includes the original base class to job evolution. Your journey from levels 1 - 30 are as your selected base class, and upon reaching level 30 you receive your corresponding job stone and are able to move through the job questline. You'll need to complete one of these regardless, as not only does the game require you to pick a discipline during character creation, but every other job introduced in the later expansions begins at or after level 30.

You'll progress through the job quests through to level 80. These job quests also grant certain actions upon completion, so not completing them means you'll be missing the necessary skills. They're a must.

Tanks

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Class Quest: Way of the Gladiator - Level 1, Gladiator's Guild

Job Quest: Paladin's Pledge - Level 30, Gladiator's Guild

Paladins are primarily party-defensive tanks, with a skillset suited to mitigating damage to the whole party. In comparison to the three other tanks, Paladin is more "buff"-heavy, meaning they can do more to protect the at-large group and even heal other members, but also have to balance the uses of their abilities. Play-wise, there might be a little negotiating with party-wide damages and preemptively knowing when wind-ups for big hits might benefit from popping a little extra protection on everyone. They also have some skills that require casting.

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Class Quest: Way of the Marauder - Level 1, Marauder's Guild

Job Quest: Pride and Duty (Will Take You From the Mountain) - Level 30, Marauder's Guild

Warriors are tanks focused more on damage and self-preservation. They've got nifty self-healing abilities that are notoriously convenient for running content solo. They lack Paladin's more party-based defense strategy, but their invul ability – Holmgang – is an endure-like ability that keeps them from falling below 1 HP for 10 seconds and is similarly as basic in use. Warrior is often considered extremely beginner-friendly due to its self-sustaining abilities and a forgiving rotation.

So, if you prefer a bit of tunnel vision when tanking – in not necessarily having to worry about party buffs, and instead focusing on yourself and fight mechanics – Warrior is the way to go.


DPS

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Class Quest: Way of the Lancer - Level 1, Lancer's Guild

Job Quest: Eye of the Dragon - Level 30, Lancer's Guild

Dragoons have a storied history in Ishgard. They're the poster job for Heavensward, and they also used to be affectionately known as floor tanks. They're very leap-oriented, so it's important when playing Dragoon to know your position on the board and be able to accurately understand where your dismount might land you, although this has become less of a pain in recent updates. Dragoons are also positional, meaning that damage is increased depending on the position in which you're executing certain skills.

These positions are usually the rear and flank (often on bigger enemies or bosses) and straight lines for mobs. Dragoons have a pretty solid starter kit with a very focused and straightforward rotation. Battle Litany, acquired at level 52 by way of job quest, provides more utility for the party, but otherwise, this job is a dedicated slice and dicer.

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Class Quest: Way of the Pugilist – Level 1, Pugilist's Guild

Job Quest: Brother From Another Mother – Level 30, Pugilist's Guild

Monks move fast and hit hard. They're a close-range melee and are great if you're looking to be able to run around the board and dodge mechanics without having to worry about cast times or more explicit positionals. Unlike Dragoon, there's a fair bit of flexibility in how (and when) exactly you want to execute certain actions, but this also makes the job a little more of a balancing act. Monk has different "forms", and transitioning into these will determine the nature of the rotation in use. There are positionals in the coeurl form, but the other two – Opo-opo and Raptor – are more general in dealing damage. Monk has a generally loose, weavy feel during combat, with constant upkeep of moves and little downtime.

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Class Quest: Way of the Archer – Level 1, Archer's Guild

Job Quest: A Song of Bards and Bowmen – Level 30, Archer's Guild

Bards are the songsters of the group, and like their inspirational counterparts, they have more utility for the wider group in the form of music-based actions that offer increased critical hit rates, healing, and more to all party members within range. Bards are also less strict in their rotations and have room for maneuverability in playstyle. Because of this focus on the wider group, Bards have somewhat of a responsibility (especially in higher-end content) to understand the use and timing of certain critical skill buffs.

In addition – you ever hear anyone playing the harp in the overworld? Leveling Bard also allows you to unlock instruments, which will provide you with a plethora of ways to play actual music on a variety of instruments.

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Class Quest: Way of the Thaumaturge - Level 1, Thaumaturge's Guild

Job Quest: Taking the Black – Level 30, Thaumaturge's Guild

Y'shtola of the Scion is a dedicated black mage – a powerful spell-caster who can literally call down meteors on foes. Black Mage is a caster, meaning that you will have some downtime in readying spells, making the class a bit more difficult if you're dodging mechanic-heavy fights. There's a long-running joke that Black Mages refuse to move for certain AOEs when they're in their ley lines, which reduces cast time for a quicker rotation. It reflects a pretty real sacrifice of the playstyle, in that mistakes in your rotation when balancing the element gauge while having to dodge can result in a loss of built-up DPS. It is widely considered one of the best DPS damage-wise though.

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Class Quest: Way of the Arcanist – Level 1, Arcanist's Guild

Job Quest: Austerities of Flame – Level 30, Arcanist's Guild

Summoners utilize the unique ability of summons, or "pets", to help deal damage. There are three main summons which, after the carbuncle phase, will become Garuda-egi, Ifrit-egi, and Titan-egi. Later levels see your ability to unlock Bahamut and Phoenix, which are pretty fun to unleash onto the field. Summoner is also one of the few DPS classes that has a resurrection ability, so they're able to assist healers if the party is taking heavy losses during a high-level raid or trial.

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Class Quest: My First Daggers – Level 1, Rogue's Guild

Job Quest: Peasants by Day, Ninjas by Night - Level 30, Limsa Lominsa Lower Decks

Ninja is a notoriously busy job, with high DPS and constant damage-dealing. There's little downtime, and there are windows in which you have to execute high burst damage. It's a very mobile class with some positionals, so there's a lot of flexibility in movement if you're trying to easily get out of the way of AOEs and other telegraphed attacks. This makes it a good choice for dodging mechanics, but the rotation can get busy, be demanding, and require focus.


Healer

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Class Quest: Way of the Conjurer – Level 1, Conjurer's Guild

Job Quest: Seer Folly – Level 30, Conjurer's Guild

White Mages are the traditional healers, with the bulk of their actions focused on casting strong burst heals instead of regen abilities or shield actions, meaning the play is a bit more reactive to what's happening in a fight than it is preemptive. As casters, this also means you run up against a similar issue as Black Mage, although thankfully this is offset by a great set of off-global-cool down (oGCD) skills that consist of instant heals and a pretty big heal-potency buff. They're also the only job questline that gets a mount at low level, so if you want to snag a unicorn by level 30, this is your place to do it.

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Class Quest: Way of the Arcanist – Level 1, Arcanist's Guild

Job Quest: Forgotten but Not Gone – Level 30, Arcanist's Guild

The great thing about Scholar and Summoner is that they're both derived from the Arcanist class, so you really can level 2 jobs for the price of one until level 30. Scholars have a little more of a detailed playstyle, considering they've got a "pet" that, while autonomous, can do with a little guiding. Scholars are considered shield healers, which means they have a heavier focus on regen abilities and protective spells, but they're also pretty flexible.

Since this job has designated pet commands, it allows for greater situational specificity and adaptable play. This also means it's a bit of a hard sell if you like a less cluttered hot bar.


Heavensward

2015's Heavensward brought three new jobs into the rotation, one for each of the roles. The starting city - Ishgard - is full of towering Gothic structures and continual gales of snow. You'll find each starting quest line for the new jobs housed here, with no more class quests as a prerequisite. While you'll need to have completed the base game MSQ to unlock them, they all start at level 30.

Tank

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Job Quest: Our End – Level 50, The Pillars

Dark Knight is well-beloved for having one of the more emotionally potent questlines in the game. Some level it explicitly for that, but Dark Knight is a popular tank for a reason, and it's only partially because of its cooly gothic aesthetics. Like Warrior, Dark Knights can cause a lot of damage, but they have fewer self-sustainability abilities. You can also summon a shadow to fight with you at level 80, which adds to the whole job's vibe.

One of the more complicated aspects is in its invul ability, Living Dead, which allows you to essentially live past a hit that takes you to 0 HP, but you have to reach that 0 to activate your following ability, Walking Dead, which allows your dealt damage to provide big HP regens. This is a nifty ability when applied right but can also backfire in a way that Warrior or Paladin's invul abilities can't.


DPS

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Job Quest: Savior of Skysteel – Level 50, Foundation

Machinists are the gunslingers of the group, able to fire off from a distance with consistent damage. Unlike Bard, they have no real party buffs, meaning they're more focused on dealing damage. By level 40 Machinists gain a rook companion that runs, essentially, on its "battery" charge, and can only be in battle for so long. Machinists have a fairly dedicated rotation, so there's less concern about how flexible a player has to be under pressure. They're great if you want to blend more into the damage-dealing background.


Healer

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Job Quest: Stairway to the Heavens – Level 50, The Pillars

Astrologians are a bit more complicated than their other healing counterparts. They function on the use of cards that can be applied to certain members of the party based on their own job classification. For example, if the Balance card is drawn, it's best applied to a melee DPS or a tank for that extra few percentage points of buffed damage dealing. Knowing what cards apply to what classes makes this job a fair bit more difficult to master, in that there's some memorization needed under pressure, and the preemptive needs of the abilities means you'll have to read the tells of content mechanics more closely.


Stormblood

The third expansion arrived in 2017 and brought two new DPS jobs. This time the starting city is the jumping-puzzle playground of Kugane, but you won't find the jobs here – they're both unlockable in Ul'dah, and the only prerequisite is that you reach level 50, as they both start at level 50. This would start the trend of each new job introduction at expansion launch being twenty levels below the current max level. This also means they're only ten levels below the previous expansion's max, and since you're starting Stormblood at 60, you'll only need to level up by 10 to go through the MSQ with a shiny new job.

DPS

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Job Quest: The Way of the Samurai – Level 50, Steps of Nald

Samurai is the heavy hitter of the melee DPS, in that it is a pure damage dealer. It lacks any party buffs, so the focus of the job is considered more selfish, an ideal choice for those who don't want to have to worry about when and how to execute certain buff abilities on other players. As a melee class, Samurai can also easily move around while still executing actions. It's a good starting class with high yields of damage, where you can focus, really, on just wailing on the enemy.

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Job Quest: Taking the Red – Level 50, Steps of Thal

Red Mages are a bit of a mix between casters and melee classes. They see-saw between the white and black mana use and function slightly similar to black mages in the balancing out of particular spell affiliations. You also have engage and disengage abilities that, if well timed, allow for easy outs from AOEs as needed. Red Mages are also sometimes cheekily referred to as "Rez-Mages" for their Verraise ability when paired with their Dualcast trait (meaning the next spell has no cast time) for a great combo in high-end content. Conversely, it can also put some extra pressure on you if you want to fly a bit more under the radar. Luckily, you don't have to really worry about that until level 64 – and even then, its only real constant usefulness is in bigger party content.


Shadowbringers

Lali-HO! Shadowbringers is the expansion everyone talks about. It broke some ground after doing away with the slightly daunting job quests, and instead consolidated all roles into dedicated role quest lines. This was a four-way split to tank, healer, magical ranged DPS and physical DPS role quest lines. Luckily, these don't grant abilities like the job-specific quest lines do, so you can complete them at your leisure in later expansions – although they are required reading in Shadowbringers.

Tank

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Job Quest: Makings of a Gunbreaker – Level 60, New Gridania

Gunbreaker is a high-damage tank with a rotation that feels very DPS-like to a lot of players. It's got flashy moves and versatility in what kind of tank it needs to function as, so in content with two tanks, like higher-end trials, Gunbreaker can more easily adjust to the playstyle best suited to complement the other tank. Its invul ability, Superbolide, is fun in that it immediately reduces your HP to one while offering a window of 10-second invulnerability. Superbolide does have a pretty big tell (in that the HP just whooshes to one) but hey, as I've been maining White Mage lately, that's what Benediction's instant full heal is for!


DPS

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Job Quest: Shall We Dance? – Level 30, Lower Decks

Dancers fall in with Bards at the lower end of the damage-dealing spectrum in exchange for great party-wide buffs. Specifically for this job, you can select a "dance partner" with whom you can share all the benefits of your personal buffs, so it's best to choose a high-yield damage dealer like Samurai. There's a fair bit of flexibility with Dancer and it's an easy job to dodge with, making it a good selection for newcomers. It's also got something of a dancing mini-game at the end of a rotation, making it feel a little more cheerful than some of the serious jobs.


Endwalker

All good things end, and we mark the finale of a 10-year saga with the release of 2021's Endwalker. This also marks the first new job – Sage – that would be endemic to Final Fantasy XIV itself. These jobs are unlockable in the starting cities of Ul'dah and Limsa Lominsa, so you can grab them as long as you've reached level 70.

Healer

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Job Quest: Sage's Path – Level 60, Lower Decks

Sage is considered a shield healer, meaning that nearly its entire toolkit is dedicated to preventative or pre-planned healing. This makes the job the opposite in utility of White Mage, which excels in topping up low numbers. Sage is all about preventing the numbers from getting that low in the first place, and they've got quite a few skills aimed at assuring damage is mitigated. It's best suited to players who like to be proactive rather than reactive and works wonderfully if you can reduce greater damage right off the bat. If stuff does hit the fan though, Sages aren't necessarily equipped with instant burst heals as readily as White Mage or Scholar.


DPS

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Job Quest: The Killer Instinct – Level 60, Steps of Nald

Reaper calls the aid of voidsent to assist in battle. It's a very aesthetic job, sharing the vibes of Dark Knight in its particularly emo attire. Unlike most other melee jobs, it doesn't have as many positionals to remember, and also features an ability to become possessed by a voidsent, allowing you a burst window of high damage dealing. Reaper is flexible and considered easy to initially learn, making it a great entry point for those new to melee DPS.


Dawntrail

Announced at 2023's Fan Festival in Las Vegas, Square Enix unveiled Dawntrail, ushering in a new arc for the game's central story. It's a much sunnier venture – with vistas and cities inspired by South American cultures and rite of succession on the line. The two main jobs each start at level 80.

DPS

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Job Quest: Enter the Viper – Level 80, Steps of Nald

Viper is the newest melee DPS and boasts extremely high damage. It's also a much more straightforward job than some of the other melee DPS jobs, meaning your hot bar won't be quite so busy. Lacking any real party buff skills, Viper is a more selfish playstyle focused solely on dealing damage and can grant itself its own buffs. Its combo also has more tells, making it easier to execute under pressure, as there's more guidance for what to press and at what times.

FFXIV: Dawntrail Job Guide

Job Quest: The Joy of Pictomancy – Level 90, Old Gridania

Pictomancer is a unique job that's got an...interesting playstyle. There's also something unintentionally hilarious about seeing players bust out a giant cartoon hammer while fighting a massive enemy that might be responsible for ending the world as we know it. Pictomancer focuses on painting certain rotations for its job gauge, and these can be applied situationally. You can also "pre-load" certain skills by painting them on your canvas, allowing you easy access to them as needed. It's a change of pace from other jobs that follow similar patterns, making Pictomancer a pretty fun pick.


So there you have it, 10 years of Jobs in the epic universe of Final Fantasy XIV. Let us know if the comments if you'd like to see more guides from our team.

Values Value: Raising women's salary expectations will help close the gender pay gap

Encouraging women to request higher pay — and not just to match the salaries of their male counterparts — could be the key to closing the gender pay gap.

That's according to Tanja Loktionova, founder of Values Value, who presented the findings of the recruitment agency's annual salary survey at Devcom yesterday.

During her session, she showed that not only do women earn less than men in almost every discipline within the games industry, but they also expect less when asked what salary they believe would be fair.

Read more

Riot Games shuffles leadership for esports and entertainment

Riot Games has re-organised its leadership in its esports and entertainment segments.

Current esports president John Needham has been appointed president of publishing and esports, and will "create new integrated experiences" that will combine its esports, music, and creative publishing sectors.

Needham was hired as managing director of Europe in 2017, and has since held various leading roles. Prior to Riot, he was head of European publishing at Lionhead and CEO of Cryptic Studios.

Read more

Jan Richter appointed CEO of Sixteen Tons Entertainment

Sixteen Tons Entertainment is changing leadership, with founder and former CEO Ralph Stock stepping down and handing the reins to Jan Richter.

Richter joined the studio this month from ZeptoLab where he'd been working for the past four years, most recently as head of product and design. Prior to that, he worked at the likes of Mighty Bear Games, Bigpoint, and SnapDragon Games, in a career spanning almost 20 years.

Stock founded Sixteen Tons Entertainment in 1993, with the studio mainly known for its Emergency series.

Read more

Warner Bros hires Bethesda studio director to lead WB Games Montreal

Warner Bros has hired Yves Lachance to lead its Montreal games studio, appointing him video president and studio head for the developer.

He will lead the management for all disciplines across the studio, as well as working closely with Warner's publishing teams and other internal studios. He will report to WB Games' senior vice president for production and studios Ben Bell.

Lachance joins after more than eight years at Bethesda Game Studios Montreal, a studio he helped launch in 2015.

Read more

Netflix hires former Epic exec Alain Tascan as its president of games

Former Epic Games executive Alain Tascan has been appointed president of Netflix Games.

Tascan was executive vice president of game development at Epic Games from November 2018 to July 2024, and oversaw development for Fortnite, Rocket League, and Fall Guys.

Before joining Epic, Tascan founded Ubisoft and EA's Montreal studios and was also the founder and CEO of Umi Games.

Read more

Perfect World co-CEOs reportedly resigned

Perfect World CEO Xiao Hong and co-CEO Lu Xiaoyin have reportedly stepped down from their roles.

That's according to Pocket Gamer, translating a company announcement and reports from Chinese media. The executives are reportedly being replaced by former senior VP Gu Liming as the company's new CEO.

Both Hong and Xiaoyin are said to be remaining at the company as directors.

Read more

Recession Is Not Inevitable, Despite Stock Market Slump

Two traders in blue jackets on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. | John Angelillo/UPI/Newscom

It's OK to calm down about the economy. Yes, Friday's unemployment news was bad. Yes, the NASDAQ and Dow Jones neared correction territory on Friday morning. And yes, the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator has now been triggered. Odds are, though, a recession is not imminent. 

Here are three reasons why, in descending order of optimism. One, recent growth has been strong. Two, the economy has been near full employment for a while, and some kind of job growth slowdown is almost inevitable. Three, we're past the window where Federal Reserve actions can influence the election, though its recent behavior is still worrying.

Last week, the media's manic mood swing was on the exuberant side from news of a strong 2.8 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second quarter of 2024, which ended on June 30. This was a surprise improvement on the previous quarter's 1.4 percent growth. A normal reading is around 2 percent. Better, most of that growth was in the private sector, especially in consumer spending and inventory investment.

The current quarter's GDP growth estimate will come out on October 30. It would take a drastic swing to move from 2.8 percent to negative in just one quarter, though it has happened before. It typically takes two consecutive quarters of negative growth for the National Bureau of Economic Research to declare a recession, though its official standard is to call it as they see it.

The unemployment rate went up from 4.1 percent in June to 4.3 percent in July. June's reading snapped a 30-month streak of unemployment at or under 4 percent. This was the longest such streak since the 1960s.

For context, anything under 5 percent is considered pretty good. The eurozone's unemployment rate is currently 6 percent and often tops 10 percent, even in good times.

When an economy is essentially at full employment, a slowdown in job growth isn't necessarily cause for worry. The economy still has 8 million job openings, and the labor force still grew by 114,000 jobs. That annualizes to more than a million more jobs per year. 

That is slower than population growth, which isn't ideal. The labor force participation rate is also still below prepandemic levels. But a sane immigration policy combined with labor reforms like loosening occupational licensing requirements would fill more of those job openings while creating more opportunities for workers who are still outside the labor force.

The Federal Reserve's recent actions spark some worry. The Fed has spent the last two-and-a-half years walking back its panicked overreaction to COVID-19, which caused high inflation in the first place, along with a bipartisan deficit spending explosion. Inflation is finally slowing and getting back close to its 2 percent target, down from its 9.2 percent peak.

The trouble is that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed will stop focusing solely on inflation and will now pay attention to the labor market as well. The Fed has a dual mandate that tasks it with both keeping inflation low and keeping employment high. These can contradict each other, as Powell might soon find out.

If unemployment continues to worsen, look for the Fed to counteract that with stimulus in the form of interest rate cuts and monetary expansion. The tradeoff to this stimulus is higher inflation—exactly what the Fed has been fighting.

While an expected interest rate cut in September isn't a big deal by itself, if it's the start of a larger stimulus campaign, any short-term economic boost will come at the cost of a slowdown later.

The Fed's actions have lag times ranging from about six months to 18 months, so anything it does now will not impact the election. This is good news for the Fed's independence, but it does not inspire faith in Powell's commitment to fighting inflation. It would be better for the Fed to stay focused on inflation. Monetary policy is a poor tool for job creation. Entrepreneurs have a much better track record.

As usual, the big picture is a mix of short-term pessimism and long-term optimism. Whether or not the current recession doommongering comes true, the long-term trend of increasing superabundance will hold. That's as good a reason for calm as any.

The post Recession Is Not Inevitable, Despite Stock Market Slump appeared first on Reason.com.

Markets in Panic

Od: Liz Wolfe
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifying before Congress | Tom Williams / Pool via CNP / SplashNews/Newscom

The first domino: A bad U.S. economic outlook, reflected in Friday's jobs report, helped prompt major stock sell-offs globally over the weekend.

"Japanese stocks collapsed on Monday in their biggest single day rout since the 1987 Black Monday sell-offs," reports Reuters, with the Nikkei 225 index falling 12.4 percent and the Topix index falling 12.2 percent. The Kospi index in South Korea fell more than 10 percent. Equity markets felt the pain in Taiwan, Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong, and China, though to a lesser degree. "At one point, the plunge in Japanese and Korean stocks tripped a 'circuit breaker' mechanism that halts trading to allow markets to digest large fluctuations," reports The New York Times. "But even after those mandatory breathers, the sell-off in stocks seemed to accelerate. Jitters spread to the debt market, prompting a halt in trading in Japanese government bonds as well."

Wall Street's "fear gauge"—the VIX—jumped to its highest level since 2020, when the pandemic prompted a wild market fluctuation. "The market response is a reflection of the deteriorating U.S. economic outlook," Jesper Koll, a director at financial services firm Monex Group, told the Times. "It was a New York sneeze that forced Japanese pneumonia."

The U.S. jobs report, released Friday, found that hiring slowed significantly in July. Unemployment continued its slow creep upward—4.3 percent, the highest since October 2021—and wage growth eased a bit. The jobs report also revised the May and June numbers downward, by a combined 29,000 jobs, indicating that the July downshift did not come out of nowhere. It also "stoked fear of a coming recession" due to something known as the "Sahm Rule," named for economic Claudia Sahm, who identified in 2019 a useful recession indicator that our July jobs report has unfortunately met (more on that from Reason's Eric Boehm).

Inflation has showed plenty of signs of cooling a bit, responding to Federal Reserve rate hikes, but the jobs report means a rate cut "could be on the table" as soon as September, according to Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

In other words, the aspirational "soft landing"—a cooling down of inflation without triggering a recession—may not in fact be materializing. And these American warning signs are leading to global ripple effects.

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal has, I think, the smartest and most concise take on what's going on, for those who indulge:

10 THOUGHTS ON TODAY'S BIG MARKET SELOFF

In today's 5 Things newsletter, I jotted down a bunch of random stuff about this moment in stocks, crypto, FX, and macro.

Here they are

1) It was clear instantly on Wednesday that Powell was going to be offsides this market: pic.twitter.com/iJ6ipo7Grc

— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) August 5, 2024


Scenes from New York: Will Rudy Giuliani's real estate save him?


QUICK HITS

  • The U.S. government believes Iran and Hezbollah will retaliate against Israel for the recent assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut.
  • Per tabloid reporting, which was partially confirmed by the campaign, Kamala Harris' husband, Doug Emhoff, had an affair during his first marriage (not to Harris). The woman he had an affair with allegedly became pregnant and did not keep the baby, though the campaign has not acknowledged or confirmed that part.
  • "Belgium's Olympic committee announced Sunday that it would withdraw its team from the mixed relay triathlon at the Paris Olympics after one of its competitors who swam in the Seine River fell ill," reports the Associated Press. "After a spring with an abnormal amount of rainfall, tests of the river's water found that the levels of E. coli bacteria were more than 20 times higher than what World Triathlon considers acceptable," wrote Reason's Natalie Dowzicky last week. "But the mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, still jumped into the Seine earlier this month in an effort to instill confidence that the waterway was just fine. But a small dip is very different from submerging yourself for hours of racing."

This is the most French possible thing that could have happened when Paris hosted the Olympics:

Running with a really stupid idea because it sounds cool, then somehow ending up fucking over the Belgians. https://t.co/K6Id4CUVV5

— Tom (@Lawmadillo) August 5, 2024

  • Fun fact:

Nirvana's Nevermind was released 12,000 days ago. Its release date is closer chronologically to Fidel Castro taking control of Cuba than to today.

— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) August 1, 2024

The post Markets in Panic appeared first on Reason.com.

AI Revolution in Gaming: The Punk Side of Progress

Od: Mat

Article Reading Time: 3 minutes

AI: The Silent Job Snatcher

AI’s impact on the gaming industry is undeniable and it’s starting to show its teeth. According to Wired, AI is not just helping developers, but it’s also taking over jobs. From character animation to QA testing, tasks that once required a human touch are now being handled by machines. This shift is causing a lot of buzz, and not all of it is positive. Some in the industry see it as a threat to job security, with AI systems performing tasks faster and often with greater precision than their human counterparts.

Cyberpunk Game Developer, AI Generated
Cyberpunk Game Developer, AI Generated

The Bright Side: Deeply Enhanced Gameplay

But let’s not get too bleak here. AI isn’t just about stealing jobs; it’s also about making our games more immersive and interactive. The Appinventiv blog highlights how AI is enhancing gameplay experiences. Think about the NPCs that react more realistically, adapting to your actions and decisions in real-time. AI-driven game design allows for more dynamic storylines, creating a more personalized gaming experience. It’s like having a game that learns and evolves with you, making each playthrough unique.

Cyberpunk homeless persona on the street, AI Generated
Cyberpunk homeless persona on the street, AI Generated

Crafting the Future of AI

Despite the controversy, there’s no denying that AI is a powerful tool for creativity. Developers can use AI to craft more intricate and engaging worlds. It’s not just about efficiency; it’s about pushing the boundaries of what’s possible in gaming. AI can analyze massive amounts of data to predict player preferences, helping developers create content that resonates more deeply with their audience. It’s about creating games that feel more alive, more responsive, and ultimately, more fun.

AI in gaming is a double-edged sword. It’s reshaping the industry, bringing both challenges and opportunities. As a gamer, I’m excited to see where this technological evolution takes us. But it’s crucial that we find a balance, ensuring that the integration of AI enhances our gaming experiences without compromising the human element that makes game development so unique.

Article header image on Wired

The post AI Revolution in Gaming: The Punk Side of Progress appeared first on WePlayGames.net: Home for Top Gamers.

What's the Sahm Rule? Alarming Jobs Report Raises Recession Risk.

Stock market chart in the red | Photo 12375504 | Recession © Maciek905 | Dreamstime.com

A bummer of a jobs report released Friday morning triggered a sharp drop in the stock market and stoked fear of a coming recession—thanks to something known as the "Sahm Rule."

So what is that?

It is named after economist Claudia Sahm, who served as a top economic advisor during the Obama administration and identified a historical indicator of coming recessions in 2019: every time since 1970 that the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate is more than half a percentage point above the lowest three-month moving average from the previous year, a recession has soon followed.

That's a bit complicated, admittedly. If you want to know what it looks like in practice, check out today's jobs report. Unemployment in July ticked upwards to 4.3 percent. Over the past three months, the average unemployment rate has been 4.13 percent. That's quite a bit higher than the lowest three-month average from the past year—which was 3.63 percent, between June and August 2023.

Thus, the Sahm Rule has been triggered.

But the "rule" is also a set of guidelines. In the 2019 paper where Sahm identified this historical early warning system for a coming recession, she called for governments to begin distributing stimulus payments as soon as this alert was triggered. Doing so, she argued, would allow for a speedier response to a recession by eliminating the lag that occurs while politicians and other observers debate whether a recession is coming and what to do about it. Essentially, it is meant to be a technocratic solution to a recurring problem.

The political system has not adopted that approach—and thank goodness, because the federal government is $35 trillion in debt and already on pace to run a $2 trillion deficit this year. There's literally no money for stimulus checks right now.

The markets, however, seem to be taking the Sahm Rule seriously. There was a huge sell-off on the stock market Friday morning and bond yields fell as well—an indication that investors are essentially "pricing in" the cost of a coming downturn.

But there's one more complicating factor. Sahm herself says this might be a false alarm.

The Wall Street Journal reports that "Sahm doesn't think the economy is on the immediate cusp of a recession. She reckons that changes in the supply of labor since the pandemic, including the recent jump in immigration, have led the Sahm rule to overstate how weak the job market is."

"We are still in a good place, but until we see signs of stabilizing, of leveling out, I'm worried," Sahm, who also worked at the Federal Reserve and is now the chief economist at New Century Advisors, an investment firm, told the Journal.

It's good to be cautious about the predictive power of historical trends. Indeed, in that 2019 paper, Sahm warned that "the Sahm rule is an empirical regularity. It's not a proposition; it's not a law of nature."

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell echoed that sentiment this week. He called the Sahm Rule "a statistical regularity" on Wednesday, adding that "it's not like an economic rule, where it's telling you something must happen." At a meeting earlier this week, the Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady, though it indicated that a rate cut could be coming in September.

So are we heading for a recession or not? As always, it's impossible to know until we're already in one. The commonly used definition of a recession is back-to-back quarters of negative economic growth—but the economy grew by 2.8 percent during the second quarter of 2024. By that metric, it would take until the end of the year for the country to be in a recession.

The official arbiter of recessions is the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private entity whose definition of a recession takes into account monthly indicators like employment, personal income, and industrial production along with quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth (by their terms, two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth often, but not always, correspond with an official recession).

Still, the outlook is certainly darker after Friday's jobs report. If a recession is coming, the federal government's and Federal Reserve's ability to respond will be severely limited by the poor fiscal and monetary decisions that have left the Treasury deeply in debt and the central bank's balance sheets overstretched.

The Sahm Rule has correctly predicted every recession in the past half-century. Let's hope it got this one wrong.

The post What's the Sahm Rule? Alarming Jobs Report Raises Recession Risk. appeared first on Reason.com.

The Economy Biden Wants

Od: Liz Wolfe
Joe Biden speaking at the most recent State of the Union address | Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Newscom

Released this morning: The jobs report, released at 8:30 this morning, shows that in May employers added 272,000 jobs, up from the monthly average of 242,000 that's persisted for the first half of the year and far more than most economists predicted.

In April, the unemployment rate was 3.9 percent—a bit higher than the 3.4 percent unemployment the year prior. In May, it slid up to 4 percent.

"The headline number is a source for celebration for President [Joe] Biden, who frequently points to the strong job market when making the case to voters that he has handled the economy well," summarizes The New York Times. But really, the picture is more complicated.

The economy is finally recovering from its recent high-inflation period, but the recovery has been slower than predicted and the Federal Reserve will probably not be inclined to lower rates anytime soon (which affects people's willingness to transact houses, for example). This new data probably won't change the Federal Reserve's behavior, so interest rates will remain high—a tough pill for Biden to swallow, as that may be one of the major factors leading to people's perception that the economy just isn't working for them.

Maybe Trump isn't so bad? Per The Washington Post, Donald Trump plans "to repeal parts of the 1974 law that restricts the president's authority to spend federal dollars without congressional approval" if he's elected to office a second time. He's claimed his Day 1 in office would include him telling every agency to find a "large chunk" of their budgets that can be cut, taking aim at international aid programs and environmental agencies in particular.

"What the Trump team is saying is alarming, unusual and really beyond the pale of anything we've seen," Eloise Pasachoff, a budget law expert at Georgetown, tells The Washington Post. But the national debt—which currently exceeds $34 trillion—is also alarming, unusual, and really beyond the pale of anything we've ever seen, so it's not clear what types of drastic measures ought to be taken to return spending to appropriate levels. For more on the national debt, check out this Just Asking Questions interview with Rep. Thomas Massie (R–Ky.), who wears a debt clock lapel pin.

But the specific mechanism Trump plans to use may throw the balance between the legislative and executive branches out of whack. "I will use the president's long-recognized Impoundment Power to squeeze the bloated federal bureaucracy for massive savings," writes Trump on his campaign website. Impounding funds, which was banned by lawmakers when President Richard Nixon abused the process, is when a president refuses to dispense funds even after Congress has already appropriated them.

Many quoted by The Washington Post seem to believe this would be a massive constitutional crisis, and there's plenty of reason to be skeptical that Trump would actually cut the amount of spending he says. But it's interesting that Trump gets dinged for proposals like this one, while plenty of Joe Biden's spendiest programs (like student loan forgiveness, which has repeatedly been thwarted by the courts) are deemed totally acceptable.


Scenes from New York: "An investigation from the City's Department of Investigation found that around 1,200 NYPD officers cheated while taking their promotional exam, yet the cheating was apparently for naught, because it didn't meaningfully improve their test scores," reports Hell Gate. 


QUICK HITS

  • "SpaceX received the go-ahead from US air safety regulators to launch its massive Starship rocket on a fourth major test flight, as the Elon Musk-led company works to make the vehicle operational and ready for regular trips to space," reports Bloomberg. "The Federal Aviation Administration granted SpaceX a launch license to move forward with the next test flight, the agency said in a statement on Tuesday." (UPDATE: The launch happened yesterday and was successful.)
  • Canada's new Online Harms Act would "curtail people's liberty in order to stop future crimes they haven't yet committed," writes The Atlantic's Conor Friedersdorf. Take it from the man himself: "We need the ability to stop an anticipated hate crime from occurring," says Canada's attorney general.
  • Hunter Biden's gun trial—where he's charged with lying about drug use to obtain a gun—is ongoing but looking especially messy as his sister-in-law/ex-girlfriend Hallie Biden testifies against him, talking about how she disposed of his gun in a grocery store garbage can.
  • "Congestion pricing, a good idea, died because our government doesn't deserve the money," writes Josh Barro at Very Serious.
  • "A widely held belief is that the Nordic countries are great bastions of rehabilitation: by focusing on rehabilitation rather than punishment, they have managed to achieve remarkably low recidivism rates. Or so the story goes. This notion, however, is largely a myth," argues Patterns in Humanity.
  • Briahna Joy Gray, who hosted Rising with Reason's own Robby Soave (and sometimes yours truly, when I would fill in for Soave), rolled her eyes at a source's account of her sister's October 7 rape and was promptly fired from the show.
  • Joe Biden's executive order restricting asylum seekers is already having terrible consequences:

"They aren't all asylum seekers" totally misses the point. We don't want to send one person back to persecution or torture. If that requires letting in 10 or 100 who want to work, so what? My tax dollars shouldn't go to help any persecutors or torturers. https://t.co/hoh2MOyyz4

— David J. Bier (@David_J_Bier) June 6, 2024

  • New Just Asking Questions with Mike Solana (an absolute must-follow):

The post The Economy Biden Wants appeared first on Reason.com.

The Real Reason for Self-Checkout Bans

Duty free shop at Heathrow Airport with signs of PAY HERE and SELF SERVICE CHECKOUT | Photo 257565209 © I Wei Huang | Dreamstime.com

The recent wave of headlines about shoplifting and retail theft, accompanied by viral videos of people brazenly walking out of stores with stolen goods, has captured the attention of the media and politicians. The tough-on-crime crowd has advocated for a crackdown on shoplifters through more aggressive prosecution and harsher penalties. Others have emphasized the need for rehabilitation for offenders. 

One group of progressive California lawmakers claims to have found an even better solution: banning self-checkout machines from stores in the name of fighting crime. In reality, this "anti-crime" bill is nothing more than naked protectionism for union jobs. 

The proposed legislation would prohibit groceries and other retail stores from using self-checkout machines unless a host of conditions are met. These include having at least one staffed employee for every two self-checkout machines (and the employee must be exempt from any other duties), only permitting the machines to be used by shoppers with 10 items or fewer, and ensuring at least one regular cashier lane is also available at all times.

The bill's sponsor, state Sen. Lola Smallwood-Cuevas (D–Los Angeles), calls her approach "smart" on crime instead of "hard on crime," telling The New York Times: "We have so many bills in this Legislature that are trying to increase penalties….We know that what makes our community safe is not more jail time and penalties. What makes our community safe is real enforcement, having real workers that are on the floor." 

To underscore her point, Smallwood-Cuevas cites a study suggesting that retail theft is up to 16 times more likely to occur at self-checkout machines than at traditional registers, leading to an estimated $10 billion in annual losses for retailers. 

A closer look at the fine print of the bill, however, reveals the true intent behind it. The legislation mandates that any store seeking to install self-checkout machines must first produce a study analyzing, among other things, the number of employees "whose duties would be affected by the workplace technology," as well as the "total amount of salaries and benefits that would be eliminated as a result of the workplace technology." The study must then be provided to employees potentially impacted by the technology (or their collective bargaining representatives) and posted "in a location accessible to employees and customers."

Were this a game of poker, this mandated study would be the tell: Smallwood-Cuevas and her fellow progressives are trying to tuck a pro–union jobs bill inside the Trojan horse of crime prevention. 

Smallwood-Cuevas was a labor organizer before her legislative career, and some of the bill's biggest sponsors are labor unions. A press release on the United Food and Commercial Workers' website lauds the legislation, with the president of the local chapter complaining that "employers have increasingly implemented automated checkout to drastically cut staffing and reduce labor costs." The press release does not mention the word crime at all and only uses theft twice and shoplifting once. In contrast, jobs, staffing, and worker displacement are referenced a total of 10 times. 

Efforts to limit self-checkout in other blue states provide corroborating evidence, such as a proposed anti-self-checkout ballot initiative in Oregon that labor interests tried to get on the 2020 ballot, explicitly positioned as a pro–union jobs measure. 

While a pro-labor bill in California may seem utterly unremarkable, some on the right may be buying the bill's anti-crime framing. Both Fox Business and the New York Post ran articles highlighting the bill as an anti-theft measure, with little reference to the real motivations behind the legislation. Given the right's increasing embrace of labor unions, it is not hard to envision an unholy alliance of pro-labor progressives and tough-on-crime populist conservatives supporting bills around the country to eliminate self-checkout.

Supporters of the bill and numerous media outlets have cited two examples of large retail chains making their own internal decisions to reduce or remove self-checkout machines to clamp down on theft. The aforementioned statistics about self-checkout lanes leading to more shoplifting are also frequently referenced. But these points ironically cut against the need for government involvement: If self-checkout machines are really leading to massive inventory losses for stores, then retailers themselves have a direct bottom-line incentive to scrap self-checkout. 

No one cares more about inventory loss than store owners, whose entire business model is predicated on customers actually paying money for their products. That is why some retailers are reevaluating the efficacy of self-checkout and experimenting with new monitoring tactics such as "smart video" cameras that can halt the self-checkout process if they notice a customer declining to scan any items. 

There already is a built-in market response to theft concerns around self-checkout—more government interference is simply not needed. If lawmakers still want to ban self-checkout machines anyway, they should at least be honest about why.

The post The Real Reason for Self-Checkout Bans appeared first on Reason.com.

The Best of Reason: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment

The Best of Reason Magazine logo | Joanna Andreasson

This week's featured article is "In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment" by Andrew Mayne.

This audio was generated using AI trained on the voice of Katherine Mangu-Ward.

Music credits: "Deep in Thought" by CTRL and "Sunsettling" by Man with Roses

The post <I>The Best of Reason</I>: In the AI Economy, There Will Be Zero Percent Unemployment appeared first on Reason.com.

💾

© Joanna Andreasson

Společnost Apple byla založena 1. dubna, před 48 lety, a navždy změnila počítačový svět

spolecnost-apple-byla-zalozena-1. dubna,-pred-48-lety,-a-navzdy-zmenila-pocitacovy-svet

Cesta Applu začala v domě rodičů Steva Jobse na Crist Drive v Los Altos v Kalifornii. Při současném pohledu na společnost za bilion dolarů je těžké si představit, že se někteří hladoví podnikatelé rozhodli podniknout ze skromných začátků a zaměřit svůj talent a dovednosti na vytvoření nejuznávanějších světových firem na světě.

Technologický gigant dnes oslavil 1. dubna 48 let a je těžké tvrdit, že Apple proměnil počítačový svět, který před sebou vidíme. Od přenosných počítačů až po smartphony a náhlavní soupravy se smíšenou realitou je cupertinský gigant mnohými považován za toho, kdo změnil tvář tohoto odvětví.

Tam, kde všichni ostatní připravovali nápady na apríl, se Steve Jobs a Steve Wozniak spojili ve snaze dodat spotřebitelům revoluční počítačové produkty. Jako raná společnost s nezralými zakladateli se Apple musel naučit různé aspekty toho, jak být úspěšnou entitou, a i když první spuštění Apple-1 bylo úspěšné, protože se prodalo 50 kusů, bylo nutné mnoho lekcí. být učen. Když Jobs nabízel Apple-1 Paulu Terrelovi, který v té době provozoval Byte Shop, chtěl prodávat základní desky a sady, které si montéři vyzvedli, aby je vyrobili do počítače.

Terrell však chtěl, aby se sestavená zařízení prodávala jako samostatné počítače a nakonec tento nápad přinutil Jobse změnit obchodní model společnosti, protože Apple se nyní zaměřil na prodej předem sestavených počítačů veřejnosti. Tyto změny byly samozřejmě jen začátkem toho, že Apple pomalu přebíral další kategorie. Nicméně, stejně jako jeho konkurenti, Apple utrpěl značné neúspěchy a byly chvíle, kdy by gigant v současné době Cupertino vyhlásil bankrot, protože krvácel obrovské množství hotovosti.

Když se však Jobs vrátil do čela, nasměroval Apple do klidnějších vod a v roce 2007 představil revoluční produkty, jako jsou iPod, MacBook a iPhone, které nyní generují největší tržby v jediné kategorii. Zisk Applu za první čtvrtletí roku 2024 odhalil, že společnost vygenerovala tržby 119,6 miliardy dolarů , což je mamutí suma ve srovnání s tím, co vydělávala před čtyřmi desetiletími. Jobs bohužel nemohl být svědkem současného bilionového postavení společnosti, protože v roce 2011 zemřel, ale zanechal neměnné dědictví, které v současnosti naplňuje jeho nástupce Tim Cook.

Článek Společnost Apple byla založena 1. dubna, před 48 lety, a navždy změnila počítačový svět se nejdříve objevil na MOBILE PRESS.

Článek Společnost Apple byla založena 1. dubna, před 48 lety, a navždy změnila počítačový svět se nejdříve objevil na GAME PRESS.

What Software Engineers Need to Know About AI Jobs



AI hiring has been growing at least slightly in most regions around the world, with Hong Kong leading the pack; however, AI careers are losing ground compared with the overall job market, according to the 2024 AI Index Report. This annual effort by Stanford’s Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI) draws from a host of data to understand the state of the AI industry today.

Stanford’s AI Index looks at the performance of AI models, investment, research, and regulations. But tucked within the 385 pages of the 2024 Index are several insights into AI career trends, based on data from LinkedIn and Lightcast, a labor market analytics firm.

Here’s a quick look at that analysis, in four charts.

Overall hiring is up—a little


But don’t get too excited—as a share of overall labor demand, AI jobs are slipping


Python is still the best skill to have


Machine learning loses luster


The Economy Is Doing Way Better Than Many Believe

An upward arrow is seen in front of cash | Photo 150944205 | Accountant © Darren4155 | Dreamstime.com

America is celebrated for its economic dynamism and ample and generously paid employment opportunities. It's a nation that attracts immigrants from around the world. Yet Americans are bummed, and have been for a while. They believe that life was better 40 years ago. And maybe it was on some fronts, but not economically.

Surveys repeatedly demonstrate that Americans view today's economy in a negative light. Seventy-six percent believe the country is going in the wrong direction. Some polls even show that young people believe they'll be denied the American dream. Now, that might turn out to be true if Congress continues spending like drunken sailors. But it certainly isn't true based on a look back in time. By nearly all economic measures, we're doing much better today than we were in the 1970s and 1980s—a time most nostalgic people revere as a great era.

In a recent article, economist Jeremy Horpedahl looked at generational wealth (all assets minus all debt) and how today's young people are faring compared to previous generations. His findings are surprising. After all the talk about how Millennials are the poorest or unluckiest generation yet, Horpedahl's data show them with dramatically more wealth than Gen Xers had at the same age. And this wealth continues to grow.

What about income? A new paper by the American Enterprise Institute's Kevin Corinth and Federal Reserve Board's Jeff Larrimore looks at income levels by generation in a variety of ways. They find that each of the past four generations had higher inflation-adjusted incomes than did the previous generation. Further, they find that this trend doesn't seem to be driven by women entering the workforce.

That last part matters because if you listen to progressives and New Right conservatives, you might get a different story: that today's higher incomes are only due to the fact that both parents must now work in order for a family to afford a middle-class lifestyle. They claim that supporting a family of four on one income, like many people did back in the '70s and '80s, is now impossible. Believing this claim understandably bums people out.

But it's not true. One of its many problems, in addition to the data evidence provided by Corinth and Larrimore, is that it mistakenly implies that single-income households were the norm. In fact, as early as 1978, 50 percent of married couples were dual earners and just 25.6 percent relied only on a husband's income. I also assume that there are more dual-income earners now than there were in the '80s. While this may in fact be true for married couples (61 percent of married parents are now dual-earners), because marriage itself has declined, single-earner families have become relatively more common.

Maybe the overall morosity on the economy has to do with the perception that it's more expensive to raise a family these days than it used to be. Another report by Angela Rachidi looks at whether the decline in marriage, fertility, and the increase in out-of-wedlock childbirths are the result of economic hardship. She finds that contrary to the prevailing narrative, "household and family-level income show growth in recent decades after accounting for taxes and transfers." Not only that, but "the costs of raising a family—including housing, childcare, and higher education costs—have not grown so substantially over the past several decades that they indicate an affordability crisis."

So, what exactly is bumming people out? We may find an answer in the 1984 Ronald Reagan campaign ad commonly known as "Morning in America." It begins with serene images of an idyllic American landscape waking up to a new day. It features visuals of people going to work, flags waving in front of homes, and ordinary families in peaceful settings. The narrator speaks over these images, detailing improvements in the American condition over the past four years, including job creation, economic growth, and national pride.

I believe this feeling is what people are nostalgic about. It seems that they are nostalgic about a time when America was more united and it was clearer what being American meant. Never mind that this nostalgia is often based on an incomplete and idealized memory of an era that, like ours, was not perfect.

This is a serious challenge that we need to figure out how to address. One thing that won't help, though, is to erroneously claim that people were economically better off back then and call on government to fix an imaginary problem.

COPYRIGHT 2024 CREATORS.COM.

The post The Economy Is Doing Way Better Than Many Believe appeared first on Reason.com.

Apple’s Vision Pro headset is a hobby. Why won’t Tim Cook say that?

I’ve been following the press and social media coverage of Apple’s pricey new Vision Pro Augmented Reality headset, which now totals hundreds of stories and thousands of comments and I’ve noticed one idea missing from all of them: what would Steve (Jobs) say?  Steve would call the Vision Pro a “hobby,” just as he did with the original Apple TV.

You know I’m correct about this.

And the fact that Apple hasn’t gone for the H-word and no other writers are suggesting it is the topic of this column, not the Vision Pro, itself.

It would appear that nobody at Apple has the balls to call the Vision Pro a hobby, which is to say it is not expected to make a profit for the time being, which is obviously the case. Instead people like me speculate how the Vision Pro will possibly make money? It won’t.

Nor does it have to.

There’s that scene in Citizen Kane where Kane the young tycoon is accused of losing $1 million per year on his newspaper and it’s remarked that he could only continue to do so for another 60 years.

Apple’s Vision Pro business is less than a rounding error on Cupertino’s balance sheet. Its success or failure doesn’t matter to Apple’s success, nor should it matter to Apple investors. I’m not saying there can’t be good reasons to sell Apple shares, but if you sold because of the Vision Pro you made a mistake.

Which is why I wish Apple had been honest and called it a hobby. Maybe they are hoping it isn’t a hobby, but that would be a mistake. The Vision Pro’s trajectory is clear to me. It will lose money for years until it finds a vertical market where the price doesn’t matter. Along the way two important effects will also have happened: 1) third-party developers will fall in love with the Vision Pro and make good applications for it, and; 2) eventually Moore’s Law — and Moore’s Law alone — will drive down the Vision Pro’s price enough for some later version to be declared an overnight success.

Apple’s unstated strategy here is obvious. Just look at the company’s previous hobby — Apple TV — which eventually broke even and then begat Apple TV+, a completely separate and different business that needed such a hardware platform to succeed. Along the way Apple TV and the broad success of streaming video on actual televisions helped Apple as a whole to sell production computers and copies of Final Cut Pro, enabling the very different video market of today.

Apple TV was worth doing and so — probably — will be the Vision Pro. But if it isn’t successful that means nothing to Apple’s eventual legacy. So for the moment, it’s just something to write about.

But why did Apple choose not to call the Vision Pro a hobby? That decision was entirely Tim Cook’s, because only the CEO can designate a product to be a hobby. Someone has to take responsibility and when it has an even a minuscule effect on earnings, that someone is the CEO.

So why did Tim Cook decide against calling the Vision Pro a hobby? It’s not that Tim didn’t know the truth. It’s that Tim Cook isn’t Steve Jobs.

This is me simultaneously saying that Tim Cook didn’t have the balls to call the Vision Pro a hobby but at the same time explaining that the decision was meant, in a way, as a compliment to Steve, who remains the company’s visionary, even in death.

That’s touching, Tim, but it’s time for that attitude to change at Apple or the next iPod/iMac/iPad/iPhone will never come.

The post Apple’s Vision Pro headset is a hobby. Why won’t Tim Cook say that? first appeared on I, Cringely.






Digital Branding
Web Design Marketing

❌