With the country experiencing a relatively large summer wave of COVID-19, the Food and Drug Administration is considering signing off on this year's strain-matched COVID-19 vaccines as soon as this week, according to a report by CNN that cited unnamed officials familiar with the matter.
Last year, the FDA gave the green light for the 2023–2024 COVID shots on September 11, close to the peak of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in that year's summer wave. This year, the summer wave began earlier and, by some metrics, is peaking at much higher levels than in previous years.
Currently, wastewater detection of SARS-CoV-2 shows "very high" virus levels in 32 states and the District of Columbia. An additional 11 states are listed as having "high" levels. Looking at trends, the southern and western regions of the country are currently reporting SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater that rival the 2022–2023 and 2023–2024 winter waves, which both peaked at the very end of December.
Happy Tuesday and welcome to another edition of Rent Free. This week's stories include:
A federal appeals court slaps down the federal government's odd argument that it doesn't have to compensate landlords for its eviction moratorium because the moratorium was illegal.
Vice President Kamala Harris sets a first-term goal of building 3 million middle-class homes.
A Michigan judge sides with property owners trying to build a "green cemetery."
But first, a look at an under-the-radar federal regulation change that might make it easier for builders to create more small multifamily "missing middle" homes.
Code Games
In his 1942 book Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy Joseph Schumpeter praised capitalist mass production for bringing almost every basic commodity, from food to clothing, within the affordable reach of the working man. The one exception he highlighted was housing, which he confidently predicted would soon see a similar collapse in prices due to mass-produced manufactured housing.
As it happens, manufactured housing production—which is built in factories and then shipped and installed on-site—peaked in the mid-1970s and has been limping along as a small share of overall home construction ever since.
Nevertheless, the dream that cheap, factory-built homes can deliver lower-cost housing has never died.
It's certainly alive and well in the current White House.
This past week, the Biden-Harris administration released a "fact sheet" of actions it was taking to lower housing costs. It included an in-progress regulatory change that would allow two-, three-, and four-unit homes to be built under the federal manufactured housing code set by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
"The HUD Code creates economies of scale for manufacturers, resulting in significantly lower costs for buyers," says the White House in that fact sheet. Letting small multifamily housing be built under the HUD code will extend "the cost-saving benefits of manufactured housing to denser urban and suburban infill contexts," it says.
IRC, IBC, IDK
The proposed change comes at an interesting time for small multifamily housing construction.
Across the country, more and more states and localities are allowing more two-, three-, and four-unit homes to be built in formerly single-family-only areas.
That liberalization of the zoning code (which regulates what types of buildings can be built where) has set off a follow-on debate about which building code (which regulates construction standards) newly legal multiplexes should be regulated under.
Currently, the options are either the International Building Code (IBC) or the International Residential Code (IRC).
The IBC and IRC are model codes created by the non-profit International Code Council, which are then adopted (often with tweaks and changes) by states and localities.
The IBC typically covers apartment buildings of three or more units, while the IRC covers single-family homes. Neither is particularly well-suited for the regulation of smaller multi-family buildings that cities are now legalizing.
The IBC, for instance, requires expensive sprinkler systems that don't do much to improve fire safety in smaller buildings but can make their construction cost-prohibitive.
Zoning reformers have responded by trying to shift the regulation of smaller apartments into the IRC. But that raises its own problems, says Stephen Smith of the Center for Building in North America.
"It's a complicated thing to do because the IRC is not written for small multi-family. It's written for detached single-family," he says. "For traditional apartment buildings with a single entrance and stairs and halls and stuff, it's not really clear how the IRC would work with that."
The White House's proposed changes open the possibility of sidestepping this IRC-IBC dilemma entirely by letting builders of manufactured, multifamily housing opt into a single, national set of regulations.
A Floor or a Ceiling?
The question then is whether this will actually make life easier for builders.
The effect of HUD regulation on the production of single-family manufactured housing is a topic of intense debate.
Prior to the 1970s, manufactured housing was governed by a patchwork of state and local building codes. In 1974 Congress passed legislation that gives HUD the power to regulate manufactured housing.
Critics of HUD regulation argue that its initial implementation caused the steep decline in manufactured housing production in the 1970s.
In particular, they point to the HUD requirement that manufactured housing must sit on a steel chassis as a regulation that increases costs and decreases production.
Brian Potter, a senior fellow at the Institute for Progress and writer of the Construction PhysicsSubstack, contrastingly argues that HUD regulation has actually helped keep the cost of building manufactured housing down.
The production of all housing, not just manufactured housing, plummeted in the 1970s, he notes. Since the 1970s, the costs of non-manufactured, site-built housing have skyrocketed while the costs of building manufactured housing have risen much less, he points out. Potter argues that the effect of the steel chassis requirement is also overstated.
To this day, manufactured housing is the cheapest type of housing to produce when comparing smaller manufactured housing units to smaller site-built single-family housing units. The HUD code has less expensive requirements and allows builders more flexibility in the construction of units.
"The most interesting and attractive thing about the HUD code is that HUD code homes tend to be much, much less expensive than single-family homes," says Potter.
The hope is that allowing newly legal duplexes, triplexes, and fourplexes to be built under HUD standards would reduce costs compared to building them under IBC or IRC regulations.
Degrees of Change
While the HUD code has been in existence since the 1970s, its explicit exclusion of manufactured, multifamily housing is a relatively recent development. In 2014, HUD issued a memorandum saying that only single-family housing can be built under the department's manufactured housing standards.
In a 2022 public comment on the proposed updates, the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform argues that the 2014 memorandum was in error and that HUD actually has no regulatory authority to cap the number of units that can be built under the code.
According to the White House fact sheet, the Biden administration's proposed updates to the HUD code would once again allow up to four units of housing to be built under the code once again.
If the HUD code critics are correct, then this will make a minimal difference. Under this theory, builders would just have another cost-increasing building code to choose from. If folks like Potter are correct, however, this should allow builders to opt into less demanding regulations. We might therefore see an increase in the number of two-, three-, and four-unit homes built.
Building code liberalization will still only be effective in places where zoning code liberalization has already happened. Cities and states still have every power to zone out multifamily housing and ban the placement of manufactured housing.
Where cities have made those "missing middle" reforms, however, it's possible the White House's proposed regulatory changes will increase the production of manufactured, multifamily housing while policymakers figure out whether how to change the IBC or IRC to allow more site-built multiplexes.
If the CDC's Eviction Moratorium Was Illegal, Do the Feds Have To Pay for It?
When the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) banned residential evictions for non-payment of rent in 2020, property owners responded with a flurry of lawsuits, arguing that the federal government owed them compensation for what amounted to a physical taking of their property.
While those lawsuits were ongoing, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in August 2021 that the CDC moratorium was an illegal overstepping of the agency's authority.
This armed the federal government with an audacious response to all those property owners' claims for compensation: Because the CDC's eviction moratorium was illegal and lacked federal authorization, the federal government wasn't required to pay any compensation.
Incredibly, the Court of Federal Claims agreed with this argument—citing past cases that immunized the government from having to pay compensation for clearly illegal, unsanctioned acts of its agents—and dismissed a property owners' lawsuit in the case of Darby Development Co. v. United States.
But this past week, the United States Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit sided with property owners and reversed that dismal.
The appeals court ruled that the CDC eviction moratorium, while illegal, clearly did have the endorsement of both Congress and the executive branch.
"Taken to its logical conclusion, [the government's] position is that government agents can physically occupy private property for public use, resist for months the owner's legal attempts to make them leave, and then, when finally made to leave, say they need not pay for their stay because they had no business being there in the first place," wrote Judge Armando O. Bonilla in an opinion issued earlier this month.
The case is now remanded back to the federal claims court.
"The government should not be able to hide behind its own illegality to avoid paying damages for that very illegality," Greg Dolin, a senior litigation counsel at the New Civil Liberties Alliance (which filed an amicus brief in the Darby case) told Reason.
Kamala Harris, Supply Sider?
In a speech this past Friday laying out her economic agenda, Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris criticized state and local restrictions on homebuilding for driving up prices.
"There's a serious housing shortage in many places. It's too difficult to build, and it's driving prices up. As president, I will work in partnership with industry to build the housing we need, both to rent and to buy. We will take down barriers and cut red tape, including at the state and local levels," said Harris, promising to deliver 3 million units of housing that's affordable to middle-class families by the end of her first term.
It's always refreshing to hear a politician accurately diagnose the cause of America's high housing costs as a matter of restricted supply. It's even better when politicians promise to do something about those supply restrictions. Harris' remarks are rhetorically a lot better than the explicit NIMBYism coming from Republican presidential contender Donald Trump.
Nevertheless, Harris' actual housing policies, including downpayment subsidies and rent control, will only make the problem worse. Downpayment subsidies will drive up demand and prices while leaving supply restrictions in place. Rent control has a long, long record of reducing the quality and quantity of housing.
Harris' speech was also peppered with lines attacking institutional housing investors who are providing much-needed capital for housing production.
Town's Ban on 'Green Cemetery' Is Dead
If the government doesn't like your cemetery, can it just ban all cemeteries? The answer, at least in Michigan, is no, no it can't.
In the case of Quakenbush et al v. Brooks Township et al, a state circuit court judge sided with a married couple who'd sued their local government when it passed a ban on new cemeteries with an eye toward stopping their development of the state's first "conservation burial forest."
"We're excited and feel vindicated by this ruling. We are delighted that the judge understood that Brooks Township's ordinance violated our right to use our property," said Peter and Annica Quakenbush, the plaintiffs in the case. They were represented by the Institute for Justice.
Quick Links
Jim Burling, the Pacific Legal Foundation's vice president of legal affairs, has a new bookNowhere to Live covering the legal history of zoning in America, the courts' acquiescence to this restriction on property rights, and all the attendant consequences of high housing costs and homelessness that have flowed from it.
A new paper published on SSRN estimates that a 25 percent reduction in permitting times in Los Angeles leads to a 33 percent increase in housing production.
Calmatters covers the killing, or severe injuring, of various bills introduced in the California Legislature this year that aimed to pair back the California Coastal Commission's powers to shoot down new housing production. Read Reason's past coverage of the Coastal Commission here and here.
Hawaii has legalized accessory dwelling units statewide, but they haven't made building them easy.
If you build it, prices drop.
*UPDATED* (and still true)
When you build "luxury" new apartments in big numbers, the influx of supply puts downward pressure on rents at all price points -- even in the lowest-priced Class C rentals. Here's evidence of that happening right now:
A small study in Texas suggests that human bird flu cases are being missed on dairy farms where the H5N1 virus has taken off in cows, sparking an unprecedented nationwide outbreak.
The finding adds some data to what many experts have suspected amid the outbreak. But the authors of the study, led by researchers at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston, went further, stating bluntly why the US is failing to fully surveil, let alone contain, a virus with pandemic potential.
"Due to fears that research might damage dairy businesses, studies like this one have been few," the authors write in the topline summary of their study, which was posted online as a pre-print and had not been peer-reviewed.
The data confirms that H5N1 infections are significantly different from seasonal influenza viruses that circulate in humans. Those annual viruses make ferrets sick but are not deadly. They have also shown to be highly efficient at spreading via respiratory droplets, with 100 percent transmission rates in laboratory settings. In contrast, the strain from the Texas man (A/Texas/37/2024) appeared to have only a 33 percent transmission rate via respiratory droplets among ferrets.
"This suggests that A/Texas/37/2024-like viruses would need to undergo changes to spread efficiently by droplets through the air, such as from coughs and sneezes," the CDC said in its data summary. The agency went on to note that "efficient respiratory droplet spread, like what is seen with seasonal influenza viruses, is needed for sustained person-to-person spread to happen."
Part of the hierarchical development flow is about to get a lot simpler, thanks to a new standard being created by Accellera. What is less clear is how long will it take before users see any benefit.
At the register transfer level (RTL), when a data signal passes between two flip flops, it initially is assumed that clocks are perfect. After clock-tree synthesis and place-and-route are performed, there can be considerable timing skew between the clock edges arriving those adjacent flops. That makes timing sign-off difficult, but at least the clocks are still synchronous.
But if the clocks come from different sources, are at different frequencies, or a design boundary exists between the flip flops — which would happen with the integration of IP blocks — it’s impossible to guarantee that no clock edges will arrive when the data is unstable. That can cause the output to become unknown for a period of time. This phenomenon, known as metastability, cannot be eliminated, and the verification of those boundaries is known as clock-domain crossing (CDC) analysis.
Special care is required on those boundaries. “You have to compensate for metastability by ensuring that the CDC crossings follow a specific set of logic design principles,” says Prakash Narain, president and CEO of Real Intent. “The general process in use today follows a hierarchical approach and requires that the clock-domain crossing internal to an IP is protected and safe. At the interface of the IP, where the system connects with the IP, two different teams share the problem. An IP provider may recommend an integration methodology, which often is captured in an abstraction model. That abstraction model enables the integration boundary to be verified while the internals of it will not be checked for CDC. That has already been verified.”
In the past, those abstract models differentiated the CDC solutions from veracious vendors. That’s no longer the case. Every IP and tool vendor has different formats, making it costly for everyone. “I don’t know that there’s really anything new or differentiating coming down the pipe for hierarchical modeling,” says Kevin Campbell, technical product manager at Siemens Digital Industries Software. “The creation of the standard will basically deliver much faster results with no loss of quality. I don’t know how much more you can differentiate in that space other than just with performance increases.”
While this has been a problem for the whole industry for quite some time, Intel decided it was time for a solution. The company pushed Accellera to take up the issue, and helped facilitate the creation of the standard by chairing the committee. “I’m going to describe three methods of building a product,” says Iredamola “Dammy” Olopade, chair of the Accellera working group, and a principal engineer at Intel. “Method number one is where you build everything in a monolithic fashion. You own every line of code, you know the architecture, you use the tool of your choice. That is a thing of the past. The second method uses some IP. It leverages reuse and enables the quick turnaround of new SoCs. There used to be a time when all IPs came from the same source, and those were integrating into a product. You could agree upon the tools. We are quickly moving to a world where I need to source IPs wherever I can get them. They don’t use the same tools as I do. In that world, common standards are critical to integrating quickly.”
In some cases, there is a hierarchy of IP. “Clock-domain crossings are a central part of our business,” says Frank Schirrmeister, vice president of solutions and business development at Arteris. “A network-on-chip (NoC) can be considered as ‘CDC central’ because most blocks connected to the NoC have different clocks. Also, our SoC integration tools see all of the blocks to be integrated, and those touch various clock domains and therefore need to deal with the CDC code that is inserted.”
This whole thing can become very messy. “While every solution supports hierarchical modeling, every tool has its own model solution and its own model representation,” says Siemens’ Campbell. “Vendors, or users, are stuck with a CDC solution, because the models were created within a certain solution. There’s no real transportability between any of the hierarchical modeling solutions unless they want to go regenerate models for another solution.”
That creates a lot of extra work. “Today, when dealing with customer CDC issues, we have to consider the customer’s specific environment, and for CDC, a potential mix of in-house flows and commercial tools from various vendors,” says Arteris’ Schirrmeister. “The compatibility matrix becomes very complex, very fast. If adopted, the new Accellera CDC standard bears the potential to make it easier for IP vendors, like us, to ensure compatibility and reduce the effort required to validate IP across multiple customer toolsets. The intent, as specified in the requirements is that ‘every IP provider can run its tool of choice to verify and produce collateral and generate the standard format for SoCs that use a different tool.'”
Everyone benefits. “IP providers will not need to provide extra documentation of clock domains for the SoC integrator to use in their CDC analysis,” says Ahmed Nasr, digital design manager at Mixel. “The standard CDC attributes generated by the EDA tool will be self-contained.”
The use model is relatively simple. “An IP developer signs off on CDC and then exports the abstract model,” says Real Intent’s Narain. “It is likely they will write this out in both the Accellera format and the native format to provide backward compatibility. At the next level of hierarchy, you read in the abstract model instead of reading in the full view of the design. They have various views of the IP, including the CDC view of the IP, which today is on the basis of whatever tool they use for CDC sign-off.”
The potential is significant. “If done right and adopted, the industry may arrive at a common language to describe CDC aspects that can streamline the validation process across various tools and environments used by different users,” says Schirrmeister. “As a result, companies will be able to integrate and validate IP more efficiently than before, accelerating development cycles and reducing the complexity associated with SoC integration.”
The standard
Intel’s Olopade describes the approach that was taken during the creation of the standard. “You take the most complex situations you are likely to find, you box them, and you co-design them in order to reduce the risk of bugs,” he said. “The boundaries you create are supposed to be simple boundaries. We took that concept, and we brought it into our definition to say the following: ‘We will look at all kinds of crossings, we will figure out the simple common uses, and we will cover that first.’ That is expected to cover 95% to 98% of the community. We are not trying to handle 700 different exceptions. It is common. It is simple. It is what guarantees production quality, not just from a CDC standpoint, but just from a divide-and-conquer standpoint.”
That was the starting point. “Then we added elements to our design document that says, ‘This is how we will evaluate complexity, and this is how we’ll determine what we cover first,'” he says. “We broke things down into three steps. Step one is clock-domain crossing. Everyone suffers from this problem. Step two is reset-domain crossing (RDC). As low power is getting into more designs, there are a lot more reset domains, and there is risk between these reset domains. Some companies care, but many companies don’t because they are not in a power-aware environment. It became a secondary consideration. Beyond the basic CDC in phase one, and RDC in phase two, all other interesting, small usage complexities will be handled in phase three as extensions to the standard. We are not going to get bogged down supporting everything under the sun.”
Within the standards group there are two sub-groups — a mapping team and a format team. Common standards, such as AMBA, UCIe, and PCIe have been looked at to make sure that these are fully covered by the standard. That means that the concepts should be useful for future markets.
“The concepts contained in the standard are extensible to hardened chiplets,” says Mixel’s Nasr. “By providing an accurate standard CDC view for the chiplet, it will enable integration with other chiplets.”
Some of those issues have yet to be fully explored. “The standard’s current documentation primarily focuses on clock-domain crossing within an SoC itself,” says Schirrmeister. “Its direct applicability to the area of chiplets would depend on further developments. The interfaces between fully hardened IP blocks on chiplets would communicate through standard interfaces like UCIe, BoW, or XSR, so the synchronization issues between chiplets on substrates would appear to be elevated to the protocol levels.”
Reset-domain crossings have yet to appear in the standard. “The genesis of CDC is asynchronous clocks,” says Narain. “But the genesis for reset-domain crossing is asynchronous resets. While the destination is due to the clock, the source of the problem is somewhere else. And as a result, the nature of the problem, the methodology that people use to manage that problem, are very different. The kind of information that you need to retain, and the kind of information that you can throw away, is different for every problem. Hence, abstractions are actually very customized for the application.”
Does the standard cover enough ground? That is part of the purpose of the review period that was used to collect information. “I can see some room for future improvement — for example, making some attributes mandatory like logic, associated_clocks, clock_period for clock ports,” says Nasr. “Another proposed improvement is adding reconvergence information, to be able to detect reconverging outputs of parallel synchronizers.”
The impact of all of this, if realized, is enormous. “If you truly run a collaborative, inclusive, development cycle, two things will happen,” says Olopade. “One, you are going to be able to find multiple ways to solve each problem. You need to understand the pros and cons against the real problems you are trying to solve and agree on the best way we should do it together. For each of those, we record the options, the pros and cons, and the reason one was selected. In a public review, those that couldn’t be part of that discussion get to weigh in. We weigh it against what they are suggesting versus why did we choose it. In the cases where it is part of what we addressed, and we justified it, we just respond, and we do not make a change. If you’re truly inclusive, you do allow that feedback to cause you to change your mind. We received feedback on about three items that we had debated, where the feedback challenged the decisions and got us to rehash things.”
The big challenge
Still, the creation of a standard is just the first step. Unless a standard is fully adopted, its value becomes diminished. “It’s a commendable objective and a worthy endeavor,” says Schirrmeister. “It will make interoperability easier and eventually allow us, and the whole industry, to reduce the compatibility matrix we maintain to deal with vendor tools individually. It all will depend on adoption by the vendors, though.”
It is off to a good start. “As with any standard, good intentions sometimes get severed by reality,” says Campbell. “There has been significant collaboration and agreements on how the standard is being pushed forward. We did not see self-submarining, or some parties playing nice just to see what’s going on but not really supporting it. This does seem like good collaboration and good decision making across the board.”
Implementation is another hurdle. “Will it actually provide the benefit that it is supposed to provide?” asks Narain. “That will depend upon how completely and how quickly EDA tool vendors provide support for the standard. From our perception, the engineering challenge for implementing this is not that large. When this is standardized, we will provide support for it as soon as we can.”
Even then, adoption isn’t a slam dunk. “There are short- and long-term problems,” warns Campbell. “IP vendors already have to support multiple formats, but now you have to add Accellera on top of that. There’s going to be some pain both for the IP vendors and for EDA vendors. We are going to have to be backward-compatible and some programs go on for decades. There’s a chance that some of these models will be around for a very long time. That’s the short-term pain. But the biggest hurdle to overcome for a third-party IP vendor, and EDA vendor, is quality assurance. The whole point of a hierarchical development methodology is faster CDC closure with no loss in quality. The QA load here is going to be big, because no customer is going to want to take the risk if they’ve got a solution that is already working well.”
Some of those issues and fears are expected to be addressed at the upcoming DVCon conference. “We will be providing a tutorial on CDC,” says Olopade. “The first 30 minutes covers the basics of CDC for those who haven’t been doing this for the last 10 years. The next hour will talk about the Accellera solution. It will concentrate on those topics which were hotly debated, and we need to help people understand, or carry people along with what we recommend. Then it may become more acceptable and more adoptive.”
Enlarge/ A view of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention headquarters in Atlanta. (credit: Getty | Nathan Posner)
COVID-19 is becoming more like the flu and, as such, no longer requires its own virus-specific health rules, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday alongside the release of a unified "respiratory virus guide."
In a lengthy background document, the agency laid out its rationale for consolidating COVID-19 guidance into general guidance for respiratory viruses—including influenza, RSV, adenoviruses, rhinoviruses, enteroviruses, and others, though specifically not measles. The agency also noted the guidance does not apply to health care settings and outbreak scenarios.
"COVID-19 remains an important public health threat, but it is no longer the emergency that it once was, and its health impacts increasingly resemble those of other respiratory viral illnesses, including influenza and RSV," the agency wrote.
Face of boy after three days with measles rash. (credit: CDC)
Florida health officials on Sunday announced an investigation into a cluster of measles cases at an elementary school in the Fort Lauderdale area with a low vaccination rate, a scenario health experts fear will become more and more common amid slipping vaccination rates nationwide.
On Friday, Broward County Public School reported a confirmed case of measles in a student at Manatee Bay Elementary School in the city of Weston. A local CBS affiliate reported that the case was in a third-grade student who had not recently traveled. On Saturday, the school system announced that three additional cases at the same school had been reported, bringing the current reported total to four cases.
On Sunday, the Florida Department of Health in Broward County (DOH-Broward) released a health advisory about the cases and announced it was opening an investigation to track contacts at risk of infection.
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